Suscríbete al boletín energético diario
Si quieres recibir nuestro boletín energético diario en tu email para conocer, entre otros datos, el precio de la electricidad del día siguiente, suscríbete a esta lista:
Informe de mercado
Índice
La información contenida en el presente documento se basa en la información obtenida tanto de fuentes propias como de información de carácter público o suministrada por otras terceras entidades, sin que GRUPO ASE haya procedido a verificar la exactitud de la información obtenida por las fuentes citadas, así como está basada en la interpretación de los mercados de electricidad y gas que realizan los analistas de Grupo ASE. Grupo ASE se compromete a llevar a cabo su cometido con la mayor diligencia y profesionalidad, pero no garantiza ni asegura el resultado de sus análisis o de las recomendaciones realizadas. Los datos, informaciones, previsiones y recomendaciones contenidas en el presente documento han sido elaboradas con independencia de las circunstancias y objetivos particulares de sus posibles destinatarios y tienen como objetivo orientar a nuestros clientes facilitándoles un esquema analítico para la toma de decisiones e identificación de las diferentes tipologías de variables y riesgos, por lo que tienen un carácter orientativo y el uso que de las mismas se haga será responsabilidad exclusiva del cliente. Ni el presente documento ni su contenido constituyen una oferta, invitación o solicitud de compra, suscripción o cancelación de posiciones. Grupo ASE no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida, directa o indirecta, que pudiera derivarse de la utilización de este documento o de la información, previsiones o recomendaciones contenidas en el mismo por parte de sus destinatarios. El cliente o destinatario del presente documento es el responsable último de las decisiones relativas a la aceptación del cierre de precios y posiciones a futuro, no pudiendo exigir a Grupo ASE ningún tipo de responsabilidad derivada del no cumplimiento de sus previsiones.
Market report
December 2023
Table of contents
Monthly summary
Analysis
Price on the daily markets
Final average price on the free market
ASE ICEE Index
International markets
Demand
Generation
Clearing prices by technology
Interconnection balance
Electric power futures markets
Gas market report
Other raw materials
Grupo ASE Indexes
Executive summary in PDF
Informe de mercado
December 2023
Precio de la electricidad
POOL
72,17
€/MWh
Mercado libre
X
€/MWh
▲ +X% vs december 2023
Demanda
Generación
Futuros
Mercado ibérico
Q4-23: 115,00 (▼-3.0X%)
YR-24
España: X (▼-X%)
Francia: X (▲+X%)
Alemania: X (▲+X%)
Materias primas y otros índices
Futuros Brent: ▲+X%
Gas (MIBGAS): ▲+X%
Carbón (API2 Month+1): ▲+X%
CO2 (EUA): ▲+X%
Respecto al mes anterior
Índices ASE
ASE CTEI Consumo
vs november 2022
ASE ICEE
Este índice ofrece una tasa de evolución objetiva basada en el perfil mayoritario de las pymes industriales españolas, simulando un contrato indexado a POOL con tarifas 6.1TD y 6.2TD.
6.1TD: ▼ -X%
6.2TD: ▼ -X%
vs november 2022
Market report
December 2023
The price of electricity
POOL
72,17
€/MWh
▲ +13,7% vs november 2023
The free market
X
€/MWh
Demand
Generation
Futures
Spain and Portugal market
YR-23
Spain: 183,00 (▼ -10,73%)
France: 265,94 (▼ -40,60%)
Germany: 233,71 (▼ -37%)
Commodities markets and other indexes
Futures Brent: ▼-1,2%
Gas (MIBGAS): ▲+65,9%
Coal (API2 Month+1): ▼-29%
CO2 (EUA): ▼-6,5%
Compared to the previous month
Grupo ASE Indexes
ASE PTEI Total
ASE ICEE
This index offers an objective evolution rate based on the majority profile of Spanish industrial SMEs, simulating a contract indexed to POOL with 6.1TD and 6.2TD rates.
6.1TD: ▼ -2,1%
6.2TD: ▼ -2,1%
vs november 2022
Electricity ends 2023 at 87.43 MWh, 58.3% cheaper than in 2022
- For the first time, renewables have generated more than half of the annual electricity (52.6% of the mix), and for the second consecutive year, Spanish electricity prices have been the most competitive in Europe.
- The annual demand fell by 2.7% in 2023 and has accumulated a decrease of 10.2% since its peak in 2018.
- Analysis: there is an increased risk of surplus renewable energy supply in 2024.
The electricity price closes December at €72.17/MWh, a 13.7% increase compared to November
The daily price of the Spanish wholesale market (POOL) for December closed at €72.17/MWh, rising by 13.7% compared to November, but it is 46.7% cheaper than in December last year, when it stood at €135.29/MWh. The difference between 2023 and 2022 is -58.3%.
The increase in the last month is due to a rise in electricity demand and a decrease in wind and photovoltaic production.
The electricity price in 2023 has been 52% lower than what the market anticipated at the end of 2022
Although it is in a clearly higher range than its average over the last decade, the average electricity price of 2023 closes at €87.43/MWh, 58.3% lower than that of 2022 (€209.69/MWh).
In any case, it has been much more moderate than the forecasts at the end of 2022 indicated. At that time, the 2023 product (Yr-23) was closing on the Spanish electric futures market (OMIP) at €183/MWh, 58.3% above what the spot price finally marked (€87.43/MWh).
This has been the general rule in the countries around us. For example, in Germany, the average spot price of electricity for 2023 has been €95.17/MWh, when the forward market quotation at the end of 2022 set the price for 2023 (Yr-23) at €233.71/MWh.
As we explained in the December preview, the energy crisis that the European market anticipated in 2023, as a consequence of the Russian gas supply cut, has been contained due to the destruction of energy demand, which has exceeded all expectations and could have a structural character in some sectors. This issue will need to be considered in the forecasts for the coming years.
The price of electricity in Spain is the most competitive in Europe for the second consecutive year
In 2023, the average price of electricity in Spain (€87.43/MWh) was again the lowest among the major EU economies (Germany, France, Italy, Spain), whose average was €101.82/MWh.
In 2022, the competitive advantage of the Spanish market was mainly based on the Iberian mechanism of the gas cap. It was initially expected to remain in force until 31 May 2023, and was even extended to December 2023. However, it has not come into operation at all in 2023 due to the significant reduction in the daily gas price in Spain (MIBGAS). This better performance in 2023 is due to the 16% growth in renewable generation.
Renewable generation reached 52.6% of the electricity mix in 2023
Electricity generation has decreased by 3.3% compared to last year due to the reduction in electricity demand (-2.7%) and the fall in the export balance (-28.6%). Wind power has led the electricity mix for the third consecutive year, accounting for 24.5% of total generation, followed by nuclear at 21.5%.
Renewable Sources
In 2023, for the first time, more than half of Spain’s annual electricity generation was from renewable sources. After growing by 15.7%, it reached 52.3% of the mix.
Wind power increased by 3.2%, but the technology that has experienced the most spectacular evolution has been photovoltaic (+33.9%), which now contributes 14.5% of the generation mix. In fact, during peak radiation hours (between 9:00 and 18:59), photovoltaic led the generation with 28.9% of the mix, ahead of wind (20.2%) and nuclear (19%).
Photovoltaic capacity increased by 29% in 2023 to 24,647 MW. Meanwhile, wind power capacity saw a modest increase of 3.3% to 30,718 MW. New wind and photovoltaic installations (in project and under construction) guarantee that in 2024 renewable generation will again record significant progress.
In the last five years, wind and photovoltaic have grown by 71.5%, representing a remarkable intensification of variable renewable generation, which depends on weather conditions and high seasonality. Integrating this greater intermittent renewable generation will pose a significant challenge for the electrical system, with declining electricity demand and limited interconnection and pumping capacity.
On the other hand, after an extremely dry 2022, hydropower has become the third renewable source with a contribution to the mix of 10%, after growing by 41.9% in 2023. However, its production was 11.1% lower than its average over the last ten years.
Thermal Gap
Generation from fossil sources (coal and combined cycle gas) reduced by 37.3% in 2023 compared to the previous year.
Coal now accounts for just 1.5% of the generation mix, with only five plants connected to the grid. In parallel with coal’s decline, combined cycle gas plants (CCGs) have been gaining weight in recent years, thanks to their greater agility to integrate into the system and their lower CO2 emissions (almost three times less than coal).
While in 2022, CCGs reached 23.3% of the mix, driven by the gas cap mechanism and scarce hydro generation, the disappearance of these two phenomena in 2023 has led to less generation from CCGs (-35.6%).
In any case, CCGs remain the third source of generation, with 15.5% of the mix, even increasing their share to 20% during peak hours. In fact, in 2023, CCGs set the marginal matching price of the POOL in 70% of the hours (hydrothermal gap).
It’s very likely that combined cycle gas plants (CCGs) will continue to lose their share of the generation mix in 2024, as new renewable capacity is added and demand continues to contract. However, they will maintain a significant weight within the mix (especially during peak hours) and in setting the prices of the daily market, thanks to their high flexibility to integrate into the system when generation from variable renewable sources (wind + photovoltaic) decreases.
The annual demand decreases by 2.7% in 2023 and accumulates a decline of 10.2% since its peak in 2018
In 2023, demand again recorded a significant drop of 2.7% compared to last year and has accumulated a contraction of -10.2% since reaching its historical peak in 2018.
Several factors explain this clearly downward trend of the last five years, aside from the 2020 pandemic:
- The rise of self-consumption in homes and businesses.
- An increase in energy efficiency.
- Milder winter temperatures.
- The high price signal of the last three years, which has motivated a change in habits in homes and businesses.
The factor that could alter this downward trend in the coming years is the expansion of the electrification of mobility and certain industrial sectors, replacing other fuels such as gas.
Undoubtedly, the main cause of the decline in demand is the unstoppable growth of self-consumption in businesses and households. More than 298,000 homes and over 54,000 businesses already have self-consumption installations.
In 2018, there were approximately 450 MW of self-consumption installed, while 2023 ends with about 8,000 MW (+1,678%). In the last two years, self-consumption has grown by about 2,500 MW/year. It is estimated that 47% of the installed capacity corresponds to the industrial sector, 32% to the residential sector, and 20% to the commercial sector.
Demand data indicate that, in 2023, the reduction during peak radiation hours (from 10:00 to 17:00) is between 12% and 15%, compared to 2018.
As shown in the graph, the curve of electricity demand in 2023 is flattening compared to 2018, due to the greater drop during the central hours of the day.
Regarding industrial demand, where the impact of the increase in photovoltaic plants for self-consumption (47% of the total installed capacity) has been significant, the demand has accumulated a drop of 7.3% in 2023.
Other causes that have reduced industrial consumption include the high price signal, improved efficiency, and the relocation of certain sectors. The paper manufacturing (-21%) and metallurgy (-7%) sectors account for nearly 50% of the total reduction in industrial consumption in Spain during 2023.
MIBGAS falls 9% in December and consolidates its discount premium over the reference gas market in Europe
In December, high renewable production reduced the demand for gas for electricity generation by 28% and was the main factor driving the fall in wholesale gas prices in Spain. This decreased by 9% compared to the previous month, to an average of €34.55/MWh. Additionally, gas reserves in Spain are at 92% and liquefied natural gas (LNG) reserves at 62%.
Likewise, the daily reference price in Europe (TTF) also experienced a reduction in December, of 16.8% to €36.05/MWh, thanks to high reserves (82%) and low demand.
The average daily price of the wholesale gas market in Spain closed 2023 at €39.27/MWh, with a 40% drop. The Spanish price consolidates among the most competitive in Europe, with a discount premium of €1.43/MWh over the Dutch TTF, the reference in Europe, which closes the year at €40.71/MWh.
Spain’s lesser dependence on pipeline supply from Northern Europe, along with our enormous regasification and LNG storage capacity (the largest in Europe), has allowed us to better overcome the crisis caused by the Russian gas supply cut.
Gas futures (TTF) fall more than 30%, bringing Cal 24 down to €33/MWh
The gas futures markets maintain their downward trend. The Cal-24 products end the year with a quote close to €33/MWh, with a drop of more than 30% since the end of October. Contributing to the downward pressure is a combination of a mild start to winter, weak demand, and a supply that remains high thanks to increased LNG arrivals and imports from Norway.
Despite the threat of transit risk in the Red Sea and the possibility of colder weather for the next quarter, the high level of gas stored in Europe is reducing the risk premium for the 2024 curve. The cushion of reserves alleviates concerns that prices might experience aggressive increases to incentivize further destruction of demand.
The prospect of maintaining high Norwegian imports and the arrival of LNG cargoes during the remainder of winter suggests that European storage will be over 50% at the start of spring, even in a cold winter scenario.
CO2 emission prices (EUA) rebound by 15% and could again raise gas and electricity prices
Throughout 2023, CO2 emission prices (EUA) had maintained a downward trend, from €100/t at the beginning of April, due to a weaker economic context in Europe, combined with lower industrial and energy sector emissions.
This fall accelerated in the first half of December, when they reached their annual low at €66/t. This decrease has a key impact on the levels of energy switching in European gas and is a significant factor behind the recent falls in the prices of gas hubs like the TTF. The impact also directly translates to the fall in electricity market prices (spot and forward), as the variable cost that sets the marginal prices of gas plants decreases.
However, in the second half of December, the trend has reversed, and CO2 emission prices (EUA) have experienced a sharp rise of 16%, from €66/tCO2 to €78/tCO2. This has once again strengthened the energy switching signal (switching from coal to gas), which raises the anchor that sets the price of gas.
At present, the price signal for January for a gas-fired plant with 50% efficiency is more competitive than that for a coal-fired plant operating at 40% efficiency. The TTF M+1 product is currently moving around €32-35/MWh, below the fuel switching prices which are at €35-38/MWh.
Therefore, if emission prices stabilize between €75-80/tCO2, it is highly likely that the demand for gas for energy generation in Northwest Europe will be boosted compared to coal (as CCGs are more competitive), leading to a slight recovery in gas prices (TTF).
The LNG Market
For the sixth consecutive week, spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia have experienced a decline, falling to $13.3/MMBtu, influenced by full inventories and a solid LNG supply.
On the other hand, LNG exports from the United States decreased in the third week of December, with only 22 vessels departing from its liquefaction plants. However, the average delivery of natural gas to LNG export plants remained at 14.6 Bcf/d, suggesting that the departure of new vessels is likely to increase again in the coming weeks.
ASE GROUP ANALYSIS
Increased Risk of Intermittent Renewable Energy Surpluses in 2024
Spain closes 2023 as the year with the highest installation of new solar and wind capacity. With a total of 6.5GW, it has surpassed the 6.2 GW of 2022 and 6.4 GW of 2019. During 2023, 5.5 GW of new solar parks and 1 GWh of wind parks were commissioned, meaning Spain now has 55.4 GW of variable renewable generation capacity (24.7 GW solar and 30.7 GW wind).
In 2023, variable renewable generation accounted for 39% of the mix. Together, wind and photovoltaic exceeded 50% in the annual average during solar radiation hours. In those same hours, the hydrothermal gap technologies (gas, hydro, pumping, and coal), which set the high prices, have reduced their contribution to below 20%.
This decline in hydrothermal gap technologies has led to a very significant reduction in electricity prices during central radiation hours. The difference in some hours reaches 50% compared to the peak hours at the end of the day.
During the spring of 2023, we observed that, for several weeks continuously, the combined offer of wind and solar energy, along with that from nuclear plants (which cannot flexibilize their production), couldn’t be absorbed by the system (demand + interconnections + pumping consumption) and led to ‘zero’ prices.
At certain central times of the day, wind and solar plants had to limit their production for system stability reasons (technical spillage, also called curtailment). Additionally, we noticed that certain solar and wind plants didn’t set prices due to low profitability, known as economic spillage.
What effects will the growth of renewables have in 2024?
During 2024, there is likely to be an acceleration of new installed solar and wind capacity, as many of the projects that received favourable environmental impact statements in January 2023 will connect during 2024 and 2025.
This increase in installed capacity guarantees in 2024 an increase in technical and economic spillages compared to last year, with a significant risk of price collapses during radiation hours and more prolonged periods.
According to the Ministry, 12 GW of photovoltaic solar energy projects have been processed for construction in Spain in 2024. If all these projects are approved and built, the installed solar energy capacity in Spain in 2024 could reach 41 GW, which is an extraordinary growth of 48%. Regarding new wind parks, at least 2.5-3 GW should be built, which could translate to a generation growth of between 3% and 5%.
According to our projections for 2024, wind and solar could cover an average of 43.5% of the generation mix and reach peaks of up to 65% during central hours of solar radiation. In spring, as well as on days with strong wind generation, the ratio will skyrocket, generating an excess of variable renewable generation offer.
The problem is that electricity demand is not only not increasing at the same rate as the installed capacity of solar energy, but it is contracting, particularly during radiation hours, due to the increase in self-consumption, which further raises the likelihood of large surpluses in the coming years.
For 2024 and 2025, a relaxation of gas prices is anticipated compared to the last two years. Moreover, from 2026, a new wave of LNG supply is expected with the start-up of new projects in the United States and Qatar. This could raise doubts among investors, given a potential risk of profitability loss for photovoltaic investors and consumers (self-consumption).
For this reason, it is necessary to accelerate the development of new storage models such as pumping, the electrification of certain industrial sectors, the improvement of the electrical grid, interconnections between countries, or the production of green hydrogen to accommodate the intermittent generation of new solar and wind projects that will come online over the next two years.
In our view, Spain will continue to have the cheapest energy in the EU in the coming years, in a critical moment, thanks to the new wave of solar and wind generation that is projected and under execution.
The risk of price collapse for 2024 and 2025 could occur at specific moments with a longer duration than what we have seen in 2023. But we understand it will be temporary, as the market reacts to the signal with investments in storage, greater electrical system capacity, and the industry adapts to the new price curve. It is a time when the sector needs to continue investing in a decentralized energy model shift, and Spain can consolidate a competitive advantage it never had before.
In this new electrical context, full of great uncertainty and volatility, the risks of operations and investments in assets have increased, and traditional price models have become obsolete. At Grupo ASE, we have been developing price forecasting models based on advanced analytics (Artificial Intelligence).
In 2024, we will make available to our clients a new intelligent system, capable of modelling prices, transforming thousands of data and complex processes into flexible and agile operations, which will enhance decision-making in the face of new challenges in the energy market.
Juan Antonio Martínez & Leo Gago
Grupo ASE Analysts
"
The Spanish YR-24 electricity closes 44% cheaper than a year ago and with a premium of €10/MWh over Germany.
"
Gas futures (TTF) fall by more than 30%, bringing Cal-24 down to €33/MWh.
"
The quotation of CO2 emissions (EUA) rises by 15% and may raise gas and electricity prices.
Continue reading in Spanish
Precio del mercado eléctrico diario (POOL)
December 2023
72,17
€/MWh
▲
+13,7% vs november 2023
▼
-46,7% vs december 2022
Evolución del mercado eléctrico diario histórico (POOL)
Precio mercado diario año móvil (365 días)
87,10
€/MWh
Precio del POOL medio horario
Los precios horarios del POOL bajan en todas las horas respecto a abril.
Precios de la energía en Europa
Comparativa por mercados
Portugal
Precio del mercado eléctrico diario (POOL)
December 2023
63,26
€/MWh
-29,51% vs november 2023
-49,09% vs december 2022
Año móvil
93,60
€/MWh
Italia
Precio del mercado eléctrico diario (POOL)
December 2023
121,74
€/MWh
-9,33% vs november 2023
-45,75% vs december 2022
Año móvil
142,38
€/MWh
Francia
Precio del mercado eléctrico diario (POOL)
December 2023
88,96
€/MWh
+5,58% vs november 2023
-53,64% vs december 2022
Año móvil
114,10
€/MWh
Alemania
Precio del mercado eléctrico diario (POOL)
December 2023
91,12
€/MWh
+4,28% vs november 2023
-47,52% vs december 2022
Año móvil
110,72
€/MWh
Nordpool
Precio del mercado eléctrico diario (POOL)
December 2023
74,58
€/MWh
+181,75% vs november 2023
▼
-64% vs december 2022
Año móvil
69,20
€/MWh
Durante las horas de radiación solar la demanda se reduce más debido al efecto de la potencia instalada de autoconsumo en hogares y empresas.
Mix de generación
Participación de las tecnologías en el mix de generación
La generación solar dominó las horas de radiación con más del 40% del mix.
Generación renovable y libre de emisiones
Renovables
La generación proveniente de fuentes renovables representó el 53,2% del mix frente al 40% del mismo mes del año pasado.
Libres de emisiones
Evolución de la potencia instalada
Estos son los últimos datos de potencia instalada publicados por REE:
Generación eólica
Generación fósil o hueco térmico
Generación hidráulica y estado de los embalses
Grupo ASE, con la información que le proporcionan 600 puntos de suministro, elabora índices de precio y consumo de electricidad:
- Índice ASE CTEI: muestra la evolución del consumo por el suministro completo de electricidad en tarifas industriales de alta tensión.
Índice ASE CTEI (Consumo)
Mayo se anotó un ligero aumento del 0,42% del consumo frente al mismo mes del año anterior.
Tu energía, al abrigo del grupo
GRUPO ASE
(Sede central)
Gran Vía 81, piso 6º, departamento 2.
48011 – Bilbao (Bizkaia)
Tel: 944 18 02 71
ase@grupoase.net
MÁS SEDES
Comunitat Valenciana
Avenida de Benidorm, 1
En-37 · San Juan · 03550 (Alicante)
Tel: 966 593 464 – 606 393 077
ase@grupoase.net
Región de Murcia
C/ Trapería, 30, 5º B
30001 – Murcia
Tel: 618 212 774
ase@grupoase.net
Comunidad de Madrid
Avenida de América, 32
28922 – Alcorcón (Madrid)
Tel: 912 262 209
ase@grupoase.net
Catalunya
C/ Comte Urgell, 286 · Pral. D
08036 · Barcelona
Tel: 934 186 424
ase@grupoase.net
Andalucía
Calle Pago del Lunes, 9
18195 · Cúllar Vega (Granada)
Tel: 858 952 918
ase@grupoase.net
